THE “ARAB SPRING” SPURS ALGERIA TO RECONCILE WITH MOROCCO

Reports of the upcoming visit by the new Moroccan Foreign Minister to Algiers are signs that recent political and social events in North Africa are forcing the Algerian government and the Moroccan authorities to reconsider their long simmering rivalry.

Morocco and Algeria have been in a state of “undeclared war” since the beginning of hostility in the Western Sahara in 1975. However, the toppling of the Tunisian, Egyptian and Libyan dictatorships is forcing the aging Algerian Political and Military leaderships to reconsider their regional strategy. For its part, the Moroccan authorities, under similar pressures but with more wiggling room, hastened political reforms in the Kingdom leading to the formation of an Islamist government issued from the opposition.

 More than ever, the Military establishment and the political Old Guard in Algeria need a hand from the Monarchy in Morocco so both nations can thrive in a fast moving political environment. It is worth noting that on several occasions Morocco made attempts to mend relations with Algeria just to be turn down by the Bouteflika Government. So what is different about these new rapprochement attempts? The formation of a new Government in Morocco has made it easy for the Algerian hardliners to justify their change of heart toward the Kingdom of Morocco as an overture toward a new Moroccan political elite that has opposed the status quo in Morocco and that is in theory not connected to the Monarchy.

 But it is the fear of a radical change in Morocco that keeps the Algerian Military up at night. It will be difficult for the current Algerian regime to survive, in case the opposition gains more ground in Morocco. Notwithstanding Algeria’s past refusals to open borders and improve relations with Morocco, it is becoming evident to the “Oujda clan” and the top brass of the Algerian Armed Forces that a stable and secure Moroccan Monarchy is in the best interest of the current Algerian regime. In other words, the “Arab Spring” is coercing the hardliners in Algeria to align with Morocco. Forced to co-exist with dramatically different and essentially opposite “type” of governments in Tunisia, Libya and Egypt, Algerian officials found themselves closer to Rabat than any other regime in the region. All of sudden, King Mohammed VI gradual reforms and his power-sharing arrangement with the opposition started to look appealing to the Algerian oligarchy.

Well aware of the political and economic discontent in their back yard, the rulers in Algiers are also worried about the potential impact of the Moroccan F20M on the brewing Algerian unorganized opposition. the Algerian press hardly report on the familiar weekly protests in Morocco even though such social disturbances were used in the past by the Algerian official press as” propaganda” tools to discredit the Moroccan model. In opening up to the newly installed government in Morocco, the Algerian old guard will most likely buy more time in power. For their part, the Moroccans are eager to tap into the Algerian market and willing to work with the current Algerian government to avoid any sudden and unpredictable change in Algeria, as the world witnesses in Tunisia, which may disturb the security and stability of both countries.

 Recent positive comments by Algeria’s Foreign Minister regarding the importance of reviving the regional union of the five North African nations known as “the Union of Arab Maghreb” (UAM), the announcement by Algeria of a meeting of UAM Foreign Ministers in Morocco, and the recent parade of important Moroccan and Algerian business delegations exchanging visits are all signs that Algerian officials are finally realizing the importance of a realpolitik approach in dealing with Morocco. Albeit seldom reported in the international press, Algeria is plagued with sporadic social unrests including public disturbances, student and government workers frequent strikes and occasional terrorist acts. In Morocco, while the social tension has diminished a notch, thepro-democracy movement known as the February 20 movement (F20M) still commands crowds in some parts of the country.

 With a political change in Morocco, the advent of a democratically elected government in Tunisia and the defeat of the Gaddafi regime, the Algerian officials are waking up to an inhospitable environment that threatens their way of running the “system”. The Algerian youth, still traumatized by the violence of the1988 “bread riots”, cannot help but watch countries in the region press forward with genuine political changes while Algeria stays stagnant and ruled by the same faces since the country’s independence in 1962. Tunisian President’s decision to “snub” Algeria by taking his first official to Libya and Libya’s subtle affronts to Algerian sensitivities are two subjects widely discussed among average Algerians and thus putting pressure on the Bouteflika Government and the Military institution to come up with new “distraction” to explain and justify the political and diplomatic stagnation of Algeria’s diplomacy. Along this line and in another positive development, the Algerian authority has reportedly agreed to a temporary reopening of the land crossing between Morocco and Algeria closed since 1994. According to Several Algerian websites, an Algerian Court accepted a request by the Moroccan Federation of cycling to reopen the western border to allow a stage of the “Tour du Maroc” to use the Algerian territory. The Algerian Ministry of Interior has not issued a formal announcement on this matter.

 As the Moroccan and the Algerian public, familiar with these ” trial balloon news items”, awaits an official pronouncement regarding this small yet significant gesture, other diplomatic and economic activities are pointing to a possible warming of relations between Rabat and Algiers.

 @moroccoboard.com BY HASSAN MASIKY

Posted in: 137