So i was complaining to my friend over text yesterday about how Westbrook is a horrible shooter and he responded with what i posted below completely spontaneously. I told him he should be a sports writer or blogger because its so good. Wanted to post it here to see if people agree?
The texts: Me: Is it just me or is Westbrick the worst shooter ever?
My buddy: On Russell’s shooting ability, the only thing I can point to is advanced numbers vs other guys. Pro basketball reference separates shots into 5 categories:
- At Rim
- 3-10ft
- 10-16ft
- 16-3pt line
- 3pt
This year, Lebron got him in all but the 10-16ft category, the category Lebron utilizes least on the list. Durant smokes them both at everything. Harden is worse at the rim only. Booker, Kyrie, and Doncic beat him up and down the board. At 34, Westbrook shoots like a 37 y/o Kobe and worse than a 34 y/o Kobe who had an extra 2 seasons under his belt in a tougher offensive environment.
While none of that proves he’s “bad”, if he was “great” we wouldn’t see him being beat by so many of his peers.
Consider the following ranks:
At rim: #200 3-10: #195 10-16: #94 16-3pt: #197 3pt: #194
Those are all out of 245 (presumably) qualified players. Doesn’t tell a great story.
Also, if you plot shooting percentage as a function of average shot distance for those 245 players, you get the following equation
y=-0.123ln(x) +0.7919
Effectively suggesting a player who only goes for layups and dunks should shoot close to 80% and pure 3pt shooters should be somewhere around 40%. At an average shot distance of 11.8 feet, Westbrook “should” shoot about .488 from the field. His actual shooting percentage is .436. The absolute drop of .052 puts him at 228th for shooting percentage vs expected shooting percentage. If you put his make % over his expected make %, he’s still at 227.
Joel Embiid shoots over 100 points higher at .548 from an average of just 6 inches closer to the rim. Klay Thompson shoots the same percentage but does it from an average of 8 feet further away. Literally one guy shoots at a lower percentage from closer to the rim (RJ Barrett). 70 other guys shoot from closer and all are more accurate. 175 guys shoot from further away and 114 of them have better shooting percentages.
That’s just this year, although his career numbers are pretty woeful. His best season in terms of expected shooting percentage based on average shot distance would rank 198th this year. I’d say that’s a pretty fuckin bad shooter. Kobe had 13 seasons that would have been better than Westbrook’s best. I’d say the data matches your gut that Westbrook sucks at shooting and has sucked at shooting for his entire career.
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